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When Morpheus told us our reality was fake, it sounded far-fetched.
Since then, though, the idea has picked up steam.
I had some relevant background that made it possible to come up with the simulation argument.
I dont know exactly what causes this phenomenon.
Maybe its a new set of people that discover it for the first time.
But yeah, its continued to get a lot of attention ever since.
Im a little surprised that he felt comfortable being so direct and explicit about it.
Have you spoken to him about the simulation theory?Not about simulation theory.
Weve talked about other things, AI and such.
Its kind of unwise to have a go at break out of the hypothetical simulation.
The chances of success are negligible.
It seems to be more at the level of,Oh, heres a fun idea.
Im gonna have a go at it.
If there are extraterrestrials, are we sure we want to show them where we are?
The closer we get to technological maturity without having gone extinct, the less probable that one seems.
But thats more an incremental change.
So the absence of that also, I guess, strengthens my confidence that the reasoning is sound.
Have you seenThe Matrixor either of the sequels since you wrote this paper?
What did you think of them?Yeah.
I saw … it was such a long time ago.
Certainly the first one, and at least one of the others.
I remember liking the first one.
Compared to most Hollywood movies, it was more interesting and more thought-provoking than the average blockbuster.
So if thats the standard, I think it was cool.
The sequels were maybe less solid.
Just kind of a little bit like in the corvid family [of birds].
Are you familiar with the glitch in the matrix meme?No.
It seizes on this idea of reality as a repetitive computer program.I havent come across that as a meme.
But now that youve mentioned it Ill keep my eyes open for it.
Are you familiar with theMandela Effect?No.
Maybe I just forget the name of it.
Maybe Ill recognize it if you describe it.
Its a term for a sort of collective misremembrance of something.
So, maybe with psychological problems.
In earlier ages, they would say they were possessed by a demon.
I dont think [unusual news] is evidence of a simulation.
Were fairly ignorant about what kind of simulations would be produced.
So we can only make weak inferences from those kinds of observations.
That might be some evidence in favor of the simulation hypothesis.
Do you play video games?
Im thinking of detailed open-world games likeGrand Theft AutoorRed Dead Redemption.Not a lot.
I have a son now whos just reaching the age where he can play computer games.
So I play a little bit with him.
I havent played them, but I know of them.
That brings it home on a more gut level that simulations are a real possibility.
You could see a very advanced civilization maybe being able to create high-fidelity simulations and a lot of them.
But I dont think it would take a thousand years, assuming civilization doesnt destroy itself some other way.
So then some of these even seemingly more radical technologies might follow fairly swiftly.
Your paper presents three possibilities for the future of human civilization.
Which is the most likely?Yeah, its shifted somewhat.
Now youre going to follow up and ask which.
Ive tended to punt on that question a little bit.
I tend to refrain from being all that precise for various reasons.
It becomes very easily quotable.
Like, That Oxford professor says there is X percent probability that youre living in a simulation!
It just says at least one.
So if you want to go further, you have to add additional considerations.
Whats most likely or least likely?Yeah, I think maybe not at this stage.
I have had further thoughts on the topic.
I mean, aside from the probabilities, like just in terms of the implications and so forth.
Then there was some little clarification on some points.
Maybe first figure out whether its a good idea and then follow on with the action after that.
